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Celebration Mile

August 27, 2011

I’ve spent some time looking at his race and the first most significant factor was the early money for POETS VOICE whilst Strong Suit and Zoffany were still in the race on Tuesday and Wednesday. The rain came and they were both pulled but some folk were very happy to take these two on with Poets Voice. Presumably to decent stakes judging by the market move.

I started about looking to get the fav beat and it’s not been possible by my eyes. POETS VOICE has optimum conditions today and there can be no excuses from anyone. He goes with cut in the ground and is a good horse when fresh. He was only beaten a nose in the G3 Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury last August after a 10 month lay off and again, only just beaten by a short head in the G2 Jebel Hatta Stakes at Meydan in March following 6 months off. The Meydan run is the most crucial piece of form for me as had Dettori not dropped his whip a furlong out he most certainly would have won. That being the case he would have shouldered a 3lb penalty today. That means the best horse in the race has a weight advantage which can easily make the difference between winning and losing at this level.

He is a C&D winner, having won this race as a 3yo last year and as you know, course form is pre-requisite before backing anything at Goodwood. Equally important is having a jockey who rides this unique course well, and there aren’t many better than Dettori in that sphere.

Of the others, the ground will surely be too soft for Premier Loco and I can’t have a horse that fails to settle in Group races and that’s what Dubawi Gold did at Newbury last time.  And especially over the longer trip today. Beacon Lodge acts with cut and has some good form behind Excelebration so he may fill the runners up spot.

I see some bookies must have had a good week and are keen to take POETS VOICE on, so oblige them of the 7/4 if you can! Good luck.

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